Ads cut entirely May 5. This is the cleanest read of the underlying business ever captured — no paid traffic, no CAC, pure organic. The unit economics held up far better than expected.

ROAS is working (peaked at 5.56× this month). Customers are buying. V2 pre-orders are live. The only thing missing is inventory to sell and capital to produce it. Here's exactly what we need and what it returns.

3× ROAS is the conservative floor — April peaked at 5.56× and averaged 2.94× post-optimization even while soft-launching V2. The model self-liquidates at 3× and generates meaningful surplus. Every dollar in returns between $1.37 and $2.38 depending on the day.

TAVO's consumables — nasal strips and mouth tape — are now moving into physical retail and clinical settings. These channels do two things simultaneously: generate revenue from product sales and act as a low-cost acquisition funnel for the TAVO system, replacing paid ads with shelf presence. A customer who buys a $10 bag of nasal strips at a 7-Eleven is a warm lead for a $450+ TAVO LTV upgrade.

69% of total opex is variable ad spend — the business scales cost down immediately when revenue contracts (visible in Q1 2026: ad spend dropped from $44K to $15K as revenue fell). Fixed opex averages $8.2K/month — lean founding team and contractor model.

Bars = monthly revenue (left axis). Line = MoM growth rate % (right axis). Positive months green, negative red. Strong acceleration through mid-2025; Q1 2026 decline reflects V1 supply pause, not demand loss.

Mar 2026 AOV dropped to $104 — hardware supply paused, remaining sales are consumables (91% GM). V2 hardware relaunch at $179–$199 restores AOV while improving margin profile vs V1.

Bars = total monthly ad spend (left axis). Line = blended ROAS (right axis). The highlighted band shows Jul–Dec 2025, when spend consistently ran $27K–$40K/month. ROAS did not fall — it averaged 1.9× across that period, nearly identical to performance at $4–5K/month spend in mid-2024. The channel has not hit an efficiency wall.

Revenue grew faster than spend in the strongest quarters. CAC compressed from $248 in May-24 to $98 by Aug-25 as targeting improved and volume scaled.

Meta ROAS is understated here — last-click attribution doesn't capture its assist role. See attribution section below for the corrected picture.

Complete Meta Ads account data across all campaigns, ad sets, and audiences. $282K invested over 24 months reached 7.2M unique people with healthy frequency and a structured full-funnel architecture.

⚠️ The 1,681 purchases above are Meta's last-click count only. Triple Whale's blended attribution model shows Meta's true contribution is materially higher — see the attribution section below for the corrected picture.

All three funnel rates tracked monthly from Shopify. CVR improved 4× from early 2024 lows (0.25%) to a 2025 peak of 1.53% — driven by improved ad targeting and higher-intent traffic mix.

AOV = revenue per transaction ($199 HW · $29 consumable). HW GP = first-sale gross profit only (price × GM%). Total LTV = HW GP + cumulative consumable GP from N reorders. Projected 5-yr LTV ~$495 (base case with seasonal retention decay — see Forecast tab). Consumable AOV $35 at 91% GM. 5 reorders ≈ 1 pack every 10 weeks. Bold row: LTV:CAC above 3× at $98 CAC.

Launch strategy: the bundle converts existing V1 customers into V2 pre-orders without a return, generating $438 in immediate revenue and a committed V2 sale. The V2 pre-order at $199 captures new buyers at an entry price point 31% below anchor. Both offerings build committed demand before V2 ships.

Biggest opportunity: 4,570 people added to cart but didn't initiate checkout. At V2's 84% GM, converting 20% via email + paid retargeting = ~$137K gross profit at well-below-average CAC — warm audience, established intent.

No single occupation dominates — TAVO's pain point (waking groggy, disturbing a partner) is universal across income levels, industries, and life stages. The breadth confirms a wide-TAM product with no narrow-ICP dependency.

Every top feature request from open-text responses maps directly to V2.

Seasonal distribution applied automatically — units/year × monthly weight. COGS tiers: ≤850=$25 · ≤5K=$22 · ≤20K=$20 · >20K=$18  ·  Cons. attach = % of cumulative base reordering each year  ·  YoY growth baked into unit counts above

Every hardware sale triggers the consumable attach chain. This panel shows the full economics per customer acquired — from first sale through lifetime consumable reorders.

All costs are monthly. Loan balance: $200K total. Credit card balance: $80K total. Both are being serviced from operating cash flow alongside the raise.

Loan and credit card repayments are included in fixed opex and baked into all scenario models. Founder compensation is already active at reduced rate — not deferred. All numbers flow directly into the Y1 monthly model, annual summary, and cash waterfall above.

Batch 1 (850 units) ships ~Month 1. Batch 2 (3,400 units) ordered ~Month 3, arrives ~Month 4. Hardware revenue front-loaded; consumable revenue builds through the year as the installed base grows.

Three standard valuation methods applied: revenue multiple, gross profit multiple, and forward revenue discounted. Comparable seed rounds for DTC hardware: $8–12M pre-money. All figures are pre-money; equity dilution = $1M ÷ (pre-money + $1M).

A SAFE with a $7.5–10M cap gives investors 9–12% equity for $1M — fair for both sides at this stage. The $15M cap referenced in prior bridge planning would give investors 6.2%, which is aggressive for a pre-launch raise but defensible once V2 is live.

The most important data TAVO has ever produced. No ads. No retargeting. No CAC. 15 consecutive days of pure organic demand — showing exactly what the business is worth when the paid engine is off. Revenue held, new customers kept arriving, and the new all-time profit record fell on day 14.

While TAVO V2 launches online, two new offline distribution channels have been secured simultaneously. These are not future plans — the clinic is already selling and the 7-Eleven retail pilot package is in active development. Both channels serve the same strategic purpose: building brand awareness at zero ad cost while seeding a low-cost acquisition funnel for the TAVO system.

Best days show the unit economics at work — high-intent buyers, lean spend, $0 returns. ROAS = Revenue ÷ Ad Spend. Returns are tracked separately — they are a product/logistics outcome, not a marketing metric.

Bars = revenue by phase · Line = ROAS (Revenue ÷ Ad Spend — returns excluded) · Dashed markers = catalyst events